4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to LAC 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.26 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model