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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LAC
40.4%
KC
59.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.100 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LAC

Denzel Perryman LB Doubtful Groin
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Hamstring
Junior Colson LB Questionable Ankle
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Knee

KC

Mecole Hardman WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 17
–
KC 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:10 FG KC (10:10) 49-M.Wright 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 07:51 FG KC (7:51) 49-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:50 TD KC (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 8-D.Hopkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – KC 12
  • Q3 07:15 TD LAC (7:15) (Shotgun) 4-G.Edwards left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – KC 13
  • Q3 03:36 TD LAC (3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – KC 13
  • Q4 13:09 FG KC (13:09) 49-M.Wright 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 14 – KC 16
  • Q4 04:39 FG LAC (4:39) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 17 – KC 16
  • Q4 00:01 FG KC (:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 17 – KC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (10:10) 49-M.Wright 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (6:43) 16-J.Scott punts 32 yards to KC 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 16 for 9 yards (42-T.Fisk).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LAC 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 40%

    (:16) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to LAC 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 17.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:32) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to KC 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 45 for 21 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (7:51) 49-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:27) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (4:52) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to LAC 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:38) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 23 for 4 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 54%

    (10:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer to KC 25 for 15 yards (22-T.McDuffie) [56-G.Karlaftis].

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:49) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (13:09) 49-M.Wright 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (4:39) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.