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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 23 for 4 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model