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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 49-M.Wright 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model