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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP