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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 5-J.Browning punts 39 yards to LV 34, Center-86-E.Deckers. 8-A.Abdullah ran ob at LV 48 for 14 yards (86-E.Deckers).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model