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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LV
24.4%
TB
75.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.129 vs Gardner Minshew (LV) -0.098 EPA/dropback
  • TB defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
TB 28
Projected margin: TB by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LV

Nate Hobbs CB Out Ankle
Zamir White RB Out Quadricep
Justin Shorter TE Doubtful Back
Alexander Mattison RB Questionable Ankle
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Ankle

TB

K.J. Britt LB Out Ankle
Mike Edwards S Out Hamstring
Troy Hill CB Out Foot
Markees Watts LB Out Knee
J.J. Russell LB Questionable Hamstring
Tykee Smith S Questionable Knee
Joe Tryon LB Questionable Ankle
Josh Hayes CB Questionable Hamstring
Bucky Irving RB Questionable Hip
Trey Palmer WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 13
–
TB 28

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:12 TD TB (8:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 03:58 TD TB (3:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 1-R.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 09:28 TD LV (9:28) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 12-A.O'Connell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – TB 14
  • Q2 04:31 FG LV (4:31) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – TB 14
  • Q4 08:52 TD TB (8:52) 1-R.White up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – TB 20
  • Q4 03:08 FG LV (3:08) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – TB 21
  • Q4 02:03 TD TB (2:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – TB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 66%

    (9:38) 1-R.White up the middle to LV 30 for 7 yards (25-D.Richardson; 30-D.Holmes).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:43) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:28) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-56-A.Burney.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:55) 5-J.Browning punts 49 yards to LV 32, Center-86-E.Deckers. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 48 for 16 yards (53-V.Jones; 81-R.Miller).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (4:31) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (6:30) 28-S.McCormick left guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:02) 5-J.Browning punts 39 yards to LV 34, Center-86-E.Deckers. 8-A.Abdullah ran ob at LV 48 for 14 yards (86-E.Deckers).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 48%

    (1:12) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:11) 5-J.Browning punts 40 yards to LV 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:58) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to TB 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 10-T.Palmer MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 20. 10-T.Palmer to TB 23 for 3 yards (82-R.Keyton).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to TB 9 for 20 yards (23-T.Smith).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (3:08) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 33%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to TB 42 for 8 yards (37-T.Thomas).