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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.02 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP