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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to TB 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 10-T.Palmer MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 20. 10-T.Palmer to TB 23 for 3 yards (82-R.Keyton).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP