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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to TB 9 for 20 yards (23-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model