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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to TB 42 for 8 yards (37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.09 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model