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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 64

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to NO 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.45 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model