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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NO
53.9%
NYG
46.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.193 vs Derek Carr (NO) +0.190 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Tommy DeVito in place of Drew Lock)
  • NYG offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than NO

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NO

Taysom Hill TE Out Knee
Bub Means WR Out Ankle
Nick Saldiveri G Out Knee
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Questionable Achilles
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Hamstring

NYG

Deonte Banks CB Out Rib
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Out Neck
Bobby Okereke LB Out Back
D.J. Davidson DT Doubtful Shoulder
Jermaine Eluemunor T Doubtful Quadricep
Cordale Flott CB Questionable Quadricep
Christopher Hubbard T Questionable Knee
Malik Nabers WR Questionable Hip
Andru Phillips CB Questionable Shoulder
Dyontae Johnson LB Questionable Ankle
Evan Neal T Questionable Hip
Jordon Riley DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 14
–
NYG 11

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:27 TD NO (1:27) (Shotgun) 25-K.Miller left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 11:24 FG NYG (11:24) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NO 7 – NYG 3
  • Q3 03:43 TD NO (3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – NYG 3
  • Q4 04:14 TD NYG (4:14) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – NYG 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:43) 43-M.Hayball punts 35 yards to NYG 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NO 48 for 8 yards (21-Ja.Williams).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%

    (11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right [96-C.Granderson]. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Lock, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at NO 36. Penalty on NYG-26-D.Singletary, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 65%

    (7:55) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 28%

    (6:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to NO 2, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to NO 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:12) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 34 for 11 yards (55-I.Foskey). PENALTY on NO-21-Ja.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 85%

    (11:24) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:16) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-Ja.Williams. 21-Ja.Williams right end to NO 48 for 2 yards (57-P.Johnson; 24-D.Belton).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 46%

    (8:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to NO 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:33) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to NYG 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYG-30-G.Stroman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 41.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (4:24) 6-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to NO 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:55) 43-M.Hayball punts 38 yards to NYG 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to NO 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to NO 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to NO 31, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 37%

    (13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to NO 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis. Penalty on NO-31-J.Howden, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:23) 43-M.Hayball punts 36 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-98-P.Turner.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson to NO 23 for 18 yards (1-A.Taylor) [94-C.Jordan].

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:16) 43-M.Hayball punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 14 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis at NO 47. 56-D.Davis to NO 47 for no gain.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 18 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:31) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 27 for 9 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (:11) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.