Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 34 for 11 yards (55-I.Foskey). PENALTY on NO-21-Ja.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.76 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model