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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 43-M.Hayball punts 35 yards to NYG 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NO 48 for 8 yards (21-Ja.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP