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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to NYG 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYG-30-G.Stroman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.63 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 45, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model