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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 50

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 6-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to NO 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model