4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 75

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to NO 31, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP