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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 45

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to NO 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis. Penalty on NO-31-J.Howden, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.26 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model