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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 36

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right [96-C.Granderson]. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Lock, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at NO 36. Penalty on NYG-26-D.Singletary, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model