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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 43-M.Hayball punts 36 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-98-P.Turner.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP