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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 41

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson to NO 23 for 18 yards (1-A.Taylor) [94-C.Jordan].

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model