Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 62

New York Giants 11 – New Orleans Saints 14

(1:52) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Davis at NO 47. 56-D.Davis to NO 47 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.58 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -2.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model