Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 14 – New York Giants 11

(1:31) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 27 for 9 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.87 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -2.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model