4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model