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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Arizona Cardinals 18

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to ARI 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model