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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
@
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SEA
37.0%
ARI
63.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.124 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
ARI 25
Projected margin: ARI by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Stone Forsythe T Out Hand
Tre Brown CB Doubtful Hamstring
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Ankle
Michael Dickson P Questionable Back

ARI

Elijah Jones CB Out Ankle
Naquan Jones DT Questionable Elbow
Dante Stills DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 30
–
ARI 18

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:02 TD ARI (12:02) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 04:44 FG SEA (4:44) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ARI 7
  • Q1 03:31 TD SEA (3:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – ARI 7
  • Q1 00:20 TD SEA (:20) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ARI 7
  • Q2 10:56 FG ARI (10:56) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SEA 17 – ARI 10
  • Q2 02:45 TD SEA (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ARI 10
  • Q3 05:33 FG SEA (5:33) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 27 – ARI 10
  • Q3 01:08 TD ARI (1:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – ARI 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG SEA (2:00) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 30 – ARI 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (4:44) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:56) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 18 for 13 yards (88-A.Barner).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-J.Darden ran ob at SEA 20 for 14 yards (0-Z.Pascal). ARI-12-B.Gillikin was injured during the play.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:39) 38-C.Ryland punts 36 yards to SEA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 5, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-25-K.McIntosh.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:07) 38-C.Ryland punts 44 yards to SEA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (5:33) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to SEA 38 for 14 yards (27-T.Woolen).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to ARI 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 8 yards (83-D.Young).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:18) 38-C.Ryland punts 37 yards to SEA 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (10:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to ARI 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%

    (7:19) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-12-B.Gillikin has returned to the game.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.