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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 2

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP