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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model