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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Monday 2024-12-16 · 20:30 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ATL
57.9%
LV
42.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 26
–
LV 22
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Troy Andersen LB Out Knee
Casey Washington WR Out Concussion

LV

Maxx Crosby DE Out Ankle
Sam Webb CB Doubtful Back
Aidan O'Connell QB Questionable Knee
Adam Butler DT Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 15
–
LV 9

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:19 TD ATL (:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 11:49 FG LV (11:49) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. ATL 7 – LV 3
  • Q2 05:39 SAF ATL (5:39) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (96-Z.Harrison). ATL 9 – LV 3
  • Q3 09:29 FG ATL (9:29) 6-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 12 – LV 3
  • Q4 13:31 FG ATL (13:31) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 15 – LV 3
  • Q4 02:59 TD LV (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – LV 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder left guard to LV 40 for 3 yards (90-D.Onyemata).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 66%

    (5:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:55) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to ATL 49, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-82-R.Keyton.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%

    (11:49) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%

    (6:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LV 3, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 36%

    (2:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to LV 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (9:29) 6-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:52) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to ATL 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 63 yards to LV 3, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-33-A.Hamilton.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:07) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (13:31) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:32) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to ATL 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 26-A.Williams to ATL 26 for 12 yards (29-C.Smith; 45-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (9:48) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LV 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (5:31) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 49%

    (1:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 43 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes).