4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LV 3, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model