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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder left guard to LV 40 for 3 yards (90-D.Onyemata).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.61 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model