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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to LV 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model