4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to ATL 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 26-A.Williams to ATL 26 for 12 yards (29-C.Smith; 45-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model