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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP