Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Atlanta Falcons 15

(:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 43 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.75 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -0.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model