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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

6-8 HC Zac Taylor
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

3-11 HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 13:00 ET Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CIN
59.8%
TEN
40.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Will Levis (TEN) -0.123 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.187 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Will Levis in place of Mason Rudolph)
  • TEN offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 24 17–31
–
TEN 18 11–25
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

CIN

Joe Bachie LB Out Groin
Orlando Brown T Out Fibula
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Illness
Cody Ford G Questionable Illness
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Groin

TEN

Otis Reese LB Questionable Ankle
Jaelyn Duncan T Questionable Hamstring
Roger McCreary CB Questionable Shoulder
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 37
–
TEN 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:55 TD TEN (10:55) 61-J.Ojukwu and 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 06:46 TD CIN (6:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – TEN 7
  • Q1 04:02 TD TEN (4:02) 61-J.Ojukwu and 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 2-T.Spears up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – TEN 13
  • Q2 05:18 TD CIN (5:18) 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 94-S.Hubbard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – TEN 14
  • Q2 01:18 TD CIN (1:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key]. CIN 20 – TEN 14
  • Q2 00:06 FG CIN (:06) 3-C.York 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 24 – TEN 14
  • Q3 07:35 TD CIN (7:35) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone at TEN 39. 22-G.Stone for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – TEN 14
  • Q4 06:56 TD TEN (6:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 2-T.Spears for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 31 – TEN 20
  • Q4 01:14 TD CIN (1:14) 30-C.Brown up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 37 – TEN 21
  • Q4 00:05 TD TEN (:05) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 81-J.Whyle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 37 – TEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (:06) 3-C.York 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (10:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to TEN 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

    See the full breakdown →