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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to TEN 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model