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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DAL 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (32-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model