Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: -0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- DAL defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- QB edge to DAL: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.128 vs Cooper Rush (DAL) -0.094 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Bryce Young in place of Andy Dalton)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
DAL
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:07 TD DAL (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – CAR 0
- Q2 04:09 FG DAL (4:09) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – CAR 0
- Q2 00:42 TD CAR (:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa]. DAL 10 – CAR 6
- Q3 12:53 TD DAL (12:53) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – CAR 7
- Q3 07:05 TD DAL (7:05) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 83-J.Brooks for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Ray]. DAL 23 – CAR 7
- Q4 14:16 FG DAL (14:16) 17-B.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 27 – CAR 7
- Q4 09:19 TD CAR (9:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – CAR 13
- Q4 06:12 FG DAL (6:12) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 30 – CAR 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 19 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(11:19) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-D.Thompkins ran ob at CAR 13 for no gain.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:46) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to CAR 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-D.Thompkins to CAR 44 for 16 yards (40-H.Luepke; 86-L.Schoonmaker). PENALTY on CAR-32-L.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 28.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(15:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DAL 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 9-K.Turpin to 50 for 20 yards (38-A.Barno). PENALTY on DAL-24-I.Mukuamu, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 33.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 71%
(4:09) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:48) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to DAL 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(10:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DAL 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (32-L.Johnson).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 17 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 84%
(14:16) 17-B.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%
(12:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to DAL 34 for 18 yards (25-A.Booth).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 89%
(6:12) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.