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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.16 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP