Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DAL 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 9-K.Turpin to 50 for 20 yards (38-A.Barno). PENALTY on DAL-24-I.Mukuamu, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.37 EP
63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model