Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Denver Broncos 0

(10:08) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to DEN 46, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.47 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 93, worth -5.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model