Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Anthony Richardson (IND): -0.075 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Anthony Richardson in place of Joe Flacco)
- DEN offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
IND
DEN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:58 TD IND (10:58) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – DEN 0
- Q2 14:53 FG IND (14:53) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – DEN 0
- Q2 05:33 TD DEN (5:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 82-A.Trautman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – DEN 6
- Q2 00:10 FG IND (:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – DEN 7
- Q3 05:22 FG DEN (5:22) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. IND 13 – DEN 10
- Q4 13:58 TD DEN (13:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 45-N.Adkins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – DEN 16
- Q4 12:39 TD DEN (12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. IND 13 – DEN 23
- Q4 05:54 TD DEN (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – DEN 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 52%
(3:51) 28-J.Taylor right end to DEN 34 for 5 yards (92-D.Tillman).
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Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%
(14:53) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to IND 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould ran ob at IND 24 for 16 yards (52-J.Elliss). PENALTY on IND-35-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8. Penalty on IND-31-T.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
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Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(10:08) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to DEN 46, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to IND 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to IND 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to DEN 47 for 36 yards (48-M.Fraboni).
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Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%
(:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(10:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to IND 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(8:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at IND 39 for 27 yards (20-N.Cross).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%
(5:22) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 33 for 9 yards (59-C.McGrone). PENALTY on IND-59-C.McGrone, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 33.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 44%
(1:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at IND 15 for 61 yards (59-C.McGrone).
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Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%
(10:14) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Downs. IND-51-K.Paye was injured during the play.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 26%
(8:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 81%
(2:51) (Shotgun) 31-T.Goodson up the middle to DEN 24 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss).
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Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 20 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman.