Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 69

Denver Broncos 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(1:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to IND 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould to DEN 47 for 36 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.89 EP
58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model