4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 62

Denver Broncos 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to IND 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model