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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 26

Denver Broncos 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model