Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 42

Denver Broncos 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.89 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP

KICK -0.72 EP

44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
56% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model