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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 49

Denver Broncos 24 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP