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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 31-T.Goodson up the middle to DEN 24 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.59 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model